生产部门提高能源效率的宏观能耗回弹分析

提高能源效率已成为我国节能减排政策的重点,但是由于经济系统内在的调整机制作用,在宏观层面所能实现的节能效果可能不及微观技术层面能源效率提高的程度,甚至还会诱发更多的能源消耗,该现象被称为“宏观能耗回弹”效应.本文通过构建一个中国环境资源CGE模型,测算生产部门提高能源效率的宏观能耗回弹效应.结果显示,能源效率提高5％后,短期回弹效应为52.38％,节能效果仅达到技术层面预期的一半左右；长期回弹效应达178.61％,在高耗能部门竞争力提高、耗能产品出口扩张和经济增长的推动下,节能效果不但被完全抵消,总能耗还进一步增加.因此,生产部门提高能源效率在短期内确实能够降低我国能源消耗,但是由于回弹效应的存在,长期来看,在技术层面“产量相同投入更少”的努力反映到宏观经济层面则转变成“生产更多投入更多”,并且加剧了我国经济高耗能的偏好,提高能源效率所引发的产出增长和结构调整对能耗增加的刺激作用可能最终会抵消或者超过提高能源效率的节能效果.     

Enhancement of UV and chromate mutagenesis by nickel ions in the Chinese hamster HGPRT Assay †

1. The HGPRT (Hypoxanthine‐Guanine‐Phospho‐Ribosyl‐Transferase) assay with Chinese Hamster V79 cells was used to measure the mutagenic effects of UV irradiation, potassium dichromate and nickel chloride. The agents were tested separately and in the combinations of UV plus nickel and dichromate plus nickel.

2. UV, Cr(VI) and Ni(II) were confirmed to be mutagenic in the V79 cell assay. The combination of UV(5J/m²) and Ni(II) (0.5 mM) caused a mutation rate 11.2 times above that corresponding to the sum of the individual mutation rates of these agents. The combined action of Cr(VI) (0.1 mM) and Ni(II) (0.5 mM) produced a mutation rate 2.8 fold above that corresponding to the sum of the individual rates of the separate agents.

3. The enhancing effect of nickel chloride on the mutagenicity of UV or Cr(VI) is interpreted by an interference of Ni(II) with the repair of DNA lesions.     

Improving inverse model fitting in trees—Anisotropy,multiplicative effects,and Bayes estimation

Model fitting for individual-based effects in forests has some problems. Because samples measuring the separate influence of each individual are rarely available, the measured value in the sample represents the influence of all surrounding individual trees. Therefore, it is helpful to build inverse models that use the spatial pattern of the variable as well as that of the source trees. For example, since seed dispersal is influenced by wind effects, a model is discussed describing anisotropic effects to ensure an unbiased estimate of the total fruit number. Further, we present a model describing the absorption of radiation by trees. In this case a multiplicative combination of individual effects yields the total effect. Our approach uses logarithmic transformations of the original data to model multiplicative combinations as sum of transformed single effects. For fitting model parameters we propose an approach based on Bayesian statistics, to ensure ecologically interpretable parameters.     

改善企业安全文化技术手段的应用研究

安全文化建设在我国企业界受到重视,但是缺乏安全文化建设明确、实用的方法.将安全文化定义为"影响企业安全业绩的核心要素",设计Likert量表、硬件设备和计算机管理系统对安全文化进行定量测量,根据测量结果设计有针对性的培训可以快速改善企业的安全文化.从实际的企业测量可知,通过三次测量、两次抽样培训,企业安全文化可以提高8%左右,说明测量和培训相结合的方法是企业安全文化改善的有效手段.     

中国居民及动植物的环境激素暴露研究现状和建议

环境激素污染严重威胁着人类及动植物的健康。综述了EDCs生物危害,简要介绍了美国、日本和欧盟的EDCs研究工作,分析了中国居民和动植物的EDCs暴露现状,归纳了现有的流行病学调查信息,并针对现状提出了建议。     

TCP的污泥减量效果及其对出水水质的长期影响

向倒置A2/O中试系统中投加2,4,5-三氯苯酚(TCP),研究TCP对污泥的减量效果及进入处理系统后对系统出水水质长期影响。研究结果表明:与参照组相比,加药组投加TCP 2 mg/L时,污泥减量达62.5%,出水TN比参照组平均高0.8 mg/L,137 d后出水TP超过0.5 mg/L。TCP对污泥的减量效果好,需要加除磷药剂进行辅助除磷。     

Evaluating the ecological benefits of wildfire by integrating fire and ecosystem simulation models

Fire managers are now realizing that wildfires can be beneficial because they can reduce hazardous fuels and restore fire-dominated ecosystems. A software tool that assesses potential beneficial and detrimental ecological effects from wildfire would be helpful to fire management. This paper presents a simulation platform called FLEAT (Fire and Landscape Ecology Assessment Tool) that integrates several existing landscape- and stand-level simulation models to compute an ecologically based measure that describes if a wildfire is moving the burning landscape towards or away from the historical range and variation of vegetation composition. FLEAT uses a fire effects model to simulate fire severity, which is then used to predict vegetation development for 1, 10, and 100 years into the future using a landscape simulation model. The landscape is then simulated for 5000 years using parameters derived from historical data to create an historical time series that is compared to the predicted landscape composition at year 1, 10, and 100 to compute a metric that describes their similarity to the simulated historical conditions. This tool is designed to be used in operational wildfire management using the LANDFIRE spatial database so that fire managers can decide how aggressively to suppress wildfires. Validation of fire severity predictions using field data from six wildfires revealed that while accuracy is moderate (30-60%), it is mostly dictated by the quality of GIS layers input to FLEAT. Predicted 1-year landscape compositions were only 8% accurate but this was because the LANDFIRE mapped pre-fire composition accuracy was low (21%). This platform can be integrated into current readily available software products to produce an operational tool for balancing benefits of wildfire with potential dangers.     

市政污泥热解过程中重金属迁移特性及环境效应评估

以昆明某市政污泥为原料,研究生物炭制备过程中重金属Fe、Zn、Mn和Ni的迁移特性,并基于其潜在环境风险确定污泥基生物炭制备的最佳热解温度.本实验选择总量较高的4种重金属Fe、Zn、Mn和Ni,采用BCR提取法测定不同热解温度下4种重金属的形态和含量变化,得到各金属的形态分布变化规律和迁移路径,利用潜在生态风险指数（PERI）和风险评估代码（RAC）对污泥基生物炭进行环境风险评估.结果表明,4种金属的易挥发程度排序为Zn > Mn > Fe > Ni,4种金属形态分布情况和变化规律各不相同,但迁移路径具有共通性.在低温热解阶段,不稳定形态向稳定形态转化;随着温度的升高,可氧化态和残渣态逐步分解破碎,部分逸散到大气中,部分形成可还原态.在环境风险评估方面,高温条件（>500℃）下制备的生物炭环境风险较低,500℃制备的生物炭经济性最好.     

淡水沉积物中Cd和Cu对河蚬的毒性效应研究

以淡水底栖动物河蚬(Corbicula fluminea)为受试生物,研究了淡水沉积物中重金属Cd和Cu对河蚬的12h挖洞行为和10d存活率的影响.结果表明,河蚬对加标Cd和Cu的淡水沉积物均产生了明显的规避行为.在12h挖洞行为试验中,河蚬对沉积物中Cd的污染反应比Cu更加灵敏,暴露于Cd和Cu的10mg/kg的沉积物中时,河蚬的挖洞比率分别为0.39和0.43.在10d存活率试验中,河蚬的存活率随沉积物中Cd和Cu浓度的升高而降低.在Cd加标浓度为10mg/kg的沉积物中,河蚬的存活率为93.3%,当Cd加标浓度达到300mg/kg时,河蚬存活率降为43.3%;在Cu加标浓度为10mg/kg的沉积物中,河蚬存活率为96.3%;而当Cu加标浓度达到500mg/kg时,河蚬存活率降为34.3%.加标Cd和Cu的两种淡水沉积物对河蚬的LC₅₀分别为285、690mg/kg,表明河蚬对Cd的毒性反应更加灵敏.比较河蚬的挖洞行为和存活率对重金属Cd和Cu的指示作用,挖洞行为比存活率更加快捷,对沉积物中Cd和Cu的指示作用更加明显,故在沉积物重金属污染监测中应优先考虑挖洞行为.     

人工纳米材料对斑马鱼生态毒理效应研究进展

随着纳米技术的快速发展,人工纳米材料在光电、生物医药、化妆品等诸多领域得到了广泛应用。人工纳米材料在生产、使用和废弃处理等过程中,不可避免地通过水体、土壤、大气等进入环境,其对环境产生的生态效应逐渐引起国内外的广泛关注。斑马鱼(Danio rerio)作为一种重要的脊椎模式生物,在环境毒理学研究中应用广泛,可以作为检测人工纳米材料生态毒理效应的一种重要工具。本文介绍了人工纳米材料对水生态环境的影响及斑马鱼在生态毒理学研究中的优势,总结了其对斑马鱼的毒性效应,主要包括急性毒性和对个体发育的影响、对组织细胞及基因表达的影响,分析了人工纳米材料对斑马鱼的毒性机制,以期为人工纳米材料毒理学研究提供基础信息。